2025 Buffalo Bills Mock Offseason
My personal approach as to how to make the best roster for the Bills in 2025 and beyond. Draft, free-agency, all the good stuff!
This is a full mock approach to the Bills roster this offseason, starting with a full needs evaluation and concluding with a projected 53-man roster. For full transparency, previous mock offseasons and self-reviews are linked at the end.
A bit of a departure to my 2024 mock due to how the cards have landed, 2025 will have a lot more scenario variability with many different paths and options I think will be best suited. This mock will consist of mostly what is my base-case scenario (a blend of preference and likelihood) but will also explore alternative options.
Projected roster:
1.) Initial cap management
Like in 2024, the Bills begin 2025 with negative cap space but that is easily navigable. According to Spotrac, the Buffalo Bills currently stand at -$10.4m in cap space. (Note all savings cited below are from Spotrac)
Anyone who I envisage committing to the roster beyond 2025 and more is getting extended if it helps reduce the 2025 cap hit, basically.
These are the moves I would make in my base-case scenario:
Restructure Josh Allen ($10.3m savings): Nearly takes the cap number to positive territory in one move. Alternatively, Josh could also get a full-on new contract extension which could also be used to lower his 2025 cap hit. This would also be a good option to get him inked in before Mahomes gets his extension and payrise. Update: The Bills ended up extending Josh, at what is a very team friendly (non-market setting) deal, suprerb move.
Release Von Miller ($8.4m savings): No-brainer move. Miller was a well intentioned but bad signing and this is the first opportunity where we can cut bait with a highly overpaid DE. A negotiated paycut can be done but I do not want to consider that as an alternate scenario at all: he has little to no upside, would be a waste of a roster spot and I also personally am not a fan of his off-field character issues. (Update: this has since been done)
Restructure Dion Dawkins ($8.2m savings): A key locker room piece and ageless wonder at a key position who currently has a team friendly contract. A no-brainer restructure to create cap space.
Restructure Spencer Brown ($2.0m savings): I aligned with Bills management in my past mocks (sticking with in 2023 and extending in 2024) and this has paid off very well. Spence should and will continue to remain a key part of this offense to come. Easy move, albeit minimal cap impact.
Restructure Taron Johnson ($3.6m savings): Key starter who has been mostly healthy entering his age 29 season. Not necessarily a no-brainer moves like above but still a good one to be made.
Restructure Ed Oliver ($10.4m savings): This is the only move I am apprehensive of. Oliver has been a very streaky and flashy player and would have already been replaced in an ideal world. However he is still young, entering his age 27 season, and the savings are just too significant to pass up. For 2026, this move would make him hard to cut but still tradable with a $14.1m base salary then. Not pulling this restructure lever is an alternate scenario I will consider.
Trade Curtis Samuel ($3.9m savings): Disappointing free agent signing in 2024, one that I never asked for or liked. From a role perspective, pretty redundant with Khalil Shakir. Not a prime trade candidate, but stranger things have happened (the likelihood of the Diggs trade in 2024 is far far lower) so it can be done. Trading team would take on the $6.9m base salary off our books. Happy with any trade that isn’t the Bills giving up assets (even 2026 day 3 capital).
Release Mitch Trubisky ($2.5m savings): Simply put, I don’t think Mitch is worth $2.5m more than Mike White. He couldn’t do much other than hand the ball off or hit checkdowns in his preseason reps. He represents backup QB purgatory for me: he is neither impactful to fill in for Josh nor is he cheap enough.
Release Sam Martin (2.1m savings): Another small but easy cut, Martin was an above average but not spectacular punter. The Bills already have a reserve contract in Jake Camarda. Hopefully the offensive upgrades can bring a return to where the Bills are allergic to punts anyway. (Update: this was in my mock as it was being drafted, and the Bills have since done this).
The moves above take the Bills cap space to $41m in the green now, which is very workable. (Even if Oliver is not restructured, $30.6m is still a good workable amount).
Alternate scenario 1 Trade James Cook ($4.4m savings): This is an alternate scenario due to likelihood rather than preference. Cook has recently asked for a $15m/y extension publicly on social media (beyond the usual upcoming FA posturing) and I think this would be a big overpay ($10m/y is as far as I like to stretch it, especially for a back with little third-down value). The combination of that and the career year he has just had would also make it the best “sell-high” moment to move him. There are front offices out there incompetent enough to make this even a viable scenario, but I would want at the very least a third rounder and ideally a second rounder for him. Dallas comes to mind immediately given how Jerry Jones keeps on making questionable decisions and how RB being one of their main needs.
Alternate scenario 2 Trade Kaiir Elam ($2.6m savings): Like Cook, this is an alternate scenario based on likelihood over preference, but even more so. Absolute no-brainer if there is a trade partner (they take on his remaining base salary off our books). I just don’t see many teams willing to give up capital to take him on, especially if they can wait for him to hit waivers or even clear waivers. Some hope in the fact that he is in his age 24 season.
2.) In-house extensions
Key extensions:
[Already done by the Bills] Khalil Shakir:
This was already locked in before free agency began so I will just give my thoughts on that. He was signed for 4 years $13.3/y with a 1 year out. Very happy with this move, many have said it is an underpay but I think it is closer to fair value. Shakir is an elite gadget player but not a primary receiving weapon and I think this contract reflects that well. Hopefully it signals that the Bills front office still sees a need to complement Shakir with other weapons.
[Already done by the Bills] Terrel Bernard:
Like Shakir, this happened while I was I the process of making my mock. Would have also prioritised this before Shakir, plays a very key role as the green-dot MLB in our defense. As I thought. Spotrac’s projection of 3 years $6.7m/y was absurdly low, and I projected a 3-4 year $14m/y ceiling deal with a 2-3 year out. So him going for less than that at a 4 year extension was another superb move. Guarantees and structure not out at the time of writing.
Christian Benford:
He would have been my main priority extension ahead of Bernard and for sure Shakir. A borderline elite player at a valuable position. Using PS2 as an upper benchmark, he signed a 4-year $24m/y contract with a 3-year out. Benford is slightly lesser and of similar age, but has been less healthy in comparison. Therefore I think an ideal contract would be 4-5 years total, with a 2-year out, anything under $23m/y with some game-day active bonuses in there.
Ty Johnson:
No-brainer win-win situation to extend Johnson. Johnson clearly played his way to a pay rise but still will likely not fetch much in the open market, and has also stated a strong desire to return. He is also surprisingly only entering his age 28 season. After having been on vet-min contracts for the past 2 years, a 2-3 year $3m/y deal with a 1 year out makes great sense and locks in our third-down specialist RB.
Mack Hollins:
Ace ST player and locker room presence, but ideally should be a depth outside-WR. Spotrac has him projected at $2.4m/y which I would take but think is a bit low. Willing to give a $4-5m/y 1 year deal or 2 year deal with a 1 year out.
Other extensions: Reid Ferguson (since been done as I was writing my mock), Alec Anderson, Ryan Van Demark, Quinton Morris and Reggie Gilliam:
Every roster needs a LS, and we have a veteran one that is an upcoming FA won’t break the bank at such a position.
Morris, Anderson and Vandy are all great depth players and RFAs. I will offer them all the right-of-first refusal tenders at $3.3m each. Notably, RFA tenders are not guaranteed.
(Update: The Bills have said that they do not intend on tendering Morris as I was writing this mock. As an outsider this could go two ways: either negotiating a lesser deal as an UFA, or a bigger deal as an UFA. I certainly support the former and not the latter, and would prioritise minimising any guarantees).
Gilliam is less straightforward. I’d happily let him walk and roster a FB at all, freeing up a roster spot. It depends more on the coaching/scheme side of things. For two years, the Bills have rostered a FB despite using a sixth OL more frequently. The roster spot freeing up is the main opportunity cost to consider.
3.) Needs evaluation (Pre FA as roster stands)
Below are team positional needs split by tiers, but are not ordered within the tiers themselves.
Tier 1a (Malpractice to not address/upgrade):
DE (pass rushing impact essential):
Very much a consensus view so not much to say. The Bills defense against the pass and in third downs was very poor in 2024, especially against stronger opponents and in the playoffs. The intention has always been there in this FO to have the personnel to pressure opposing QBs with 4 rushers (the 2021 draft, signing Von Miller) but it still has yet to pay off.
Starting outside CB:
Fulling intending on letting Rasul Douglas walk, Kaiir Elam being bad fully shadowed how Douglas also completely fell off and was an absolute liability in 2024. Despite his reputation as a big draft bust, Elam actually outperformed Douglas in all notable non-volume metrics (Rec%, TD%, passer rating when targeted, penalty% and PFF grade) in 2024 (this statement is an indictment on Douglas, not of support of Elam)
Wide Receiver (verticality and outside essential):
My least consensus top-tier need and I do not understand this. This is not to remove or diminish the other aforementioned needs.
The 2024 Bills WR room was dire, and the outlook remains so without any changes:
The Bills had a good ground game and good YAC players, but once opposing defenses sold out to defend the run and clog up the middle, the Bills offense was stymied. The Houston game where Josh had a historically low completion% when all he faced was cover-1 man was the best epitome of this, but this was an issue for many other games too, including the playoff exit vs KC.
Buffalo’s receiving weapons registered the lowest separation rate in the league of 49.3%. For reference, the non-Buffalo average was 57.5% and the non-Buffalo playoff team average was 60.1%. The Buffalo WR with the highest separation rate was Shakir at 57.4%, and he did so while registering one of the lowest ADoTs across the league as well.
The vertical game was non-existent in 2024. Josh graded very well in all subjective metrics for the deep game (PFF grade, BTT rate, TFP rate) but all his production-based metrics for the deep ball were below average.
Khalil Shakir is clearly the only startable WR, but he has a very specific gadget role (which he is elite at) as one if, if not the best YAC WR in the league but does not possess the best separation ability or ball skills. (5th lowest ADoT, 2nd most screen targets, 2nd most YAC yards in 2024 leaguewide)
With Keon, I’d like to “prepare for the worst, hope for the best” I simply think he will not be a starting level WR, but happy to be proven wrong. Even if he is, he isn’t an outside X-WR and does not have the speed to stretch the field.
I originally advocated for the Amari Cooper trade before it happened, but it appeared to be very minimally impactful and I would 100% let him walk. He just didn’t have the verticality he once did to his game. His lack of targets was well discussed, but what was even more poignant was his lack of snaps: accounting for missed games, he averaged 29 snaps/game putting him at a distant fourth among Bills WRs (top 3 were all in the 40s).
While extending Shakir, retaining Coleman (for now), trading away Samuel (lesser version of Shakir), letting Cooper walk and hopefully having Mack as a STs player, this leaves a very thin WR room. The primary skillsets missing being verticality, separation and the ability to play outside and against press.
Josh Allen should be the Bills identity. The Bills do not need to go overboard and lead the league in pass attempts, but the passing game absolutely needs to be a focus and good WRs are key to that. The Bills were actually not even that “balanced” in 2024 as they were one of the run heaviest teams across the league (fourth in first down rush rate, 8th in first-half rush rate).
Tier 1b (Big mistake to not address/upgrade):
Running-down DTs (both slots):
Many see this as a top tier need, but I kind of created its own sub-tier to distance it from the big 3 above.
The main reason I see it as a lesser need is due to the age-old mantra “the best run-defense is a good lead”. Due to various offensive issues in 2024, the game script just opened up for opponents to run down our throats. The Ravens week 4 game epitomises this with the Bills offense starting the game with punt+FG+3 punts in the first half. While the Bills offense also started with a punt+FG against KC in the AFCCG playoff exit. This was not an anomaly as the Bills offense also had slow starts against both good teams like the Texans and bad teams (Arizona, Indy, Tennessee, Jets away, NE at home).
So therefore this is a two way street: The Bills offense being better will stop all these rushing yards being spammed against the defense, but DTs need to be better at holding their own against the run in early game/neutral situations.
Starting S:
Rapp is cemented as one starter, while the other starting role is up in the air. Cole Bishop had a lot of growing pains as a rookie and Damar Hamlin was already barely startable in 2024 and is an UFA.
Tier 2 (Ideally be addressed):
RB (Only in scenario of Cook being traded):
Cook was the best Bills skill position player in 2024, so trading him will leave a bit of a vacuum. However, I do not believe that Buffalo will need to replace him with a player of the same calibre due to the other RBs being solid and the OL remaining one of the best at run blocking.
Running-down DE:
Less of an issue than the DTs discussed above. Rousseau and Smoot (UFA) were actually adequate in this role. One would also hope that the pass rushing tier 1a need would also address this a la two birds with one stone.
Depth outside CB:
Even if there is a starting CB2, this leaves only gunner and former UDFA Ja’Marcus Ingram (or Elam) at outside CB on the roster, which is a big drop off and liability if either starting CB misses time.
Tier 3 (Impactful “luxury” additions):
Kicker:
Earlier in the 2024 season, this was considered a higher need. Bass seems to have found his footing but the case remains so that he is paid like an elite kicker when he is at best just an above-average kicker and this is the first year where he can be moved from financially.
LG/C:
I would best describe David Edwards as “serviceable” in that he is not a liability but also leaves a lot more to be desired. Not great in pass pro but is a plus in the run blocking game. McGovern can take back the LG spot if the Bills can get a good starting C or Edwards can just be directly upgraded.
TE3:
This is more thinking about the future: Kincaid had some injuries so best to pass judgment on his 2024 season but he was trending towards looking like a bust, while Knox can always be replaced and upgraded by a cheaper player in an ideal world.
4.) External acquisitions
Obtain an impact DE!
I had fully included and committed to a Maxx Crosby trade as my main base case scenario. That is all moot now. His extension surprised me a bit for sure, given how much he was spoken about wanting to compete and contend and not wanting to rebuild. I do not fault him for this as saying no to that much money is much easier said than done, but I guess it was too much to turn down.
Crosby is one of my favourite non-Bills players, addresses our biggest need, could have added in the run-game too and I was projecting a first, a second and giving up either Rousseau or Epenesa, plus some Day 3 change. But alas, we have to pivot to contingencies.
And a couple days after Crosby, the other main star DE trade candidate in Myles Garrett was also extended. However, this one I am less fussed about but still an unfortunate event. Garrett would have cost more in draft capital and extension and I simply have more of a personal bias for Crosby and some of Garret’s character personally does sit right with me.
Sign Joey Bosa (only at the right price):
The right piece is key, but I do believe there will not be a very strong market for him. I think that will be maximum $17m AAV (the lower the better) and at a practical 2 year deal, at most however that is structured (either 2 year high guarantee contract, or 4 year deal with a 2 year out)
Bosa has a history of injuries, so having in-game active bonuses in his contract would be key. However, he did play the most snaps in 2024 than he had for 3 years (while still missing some time).
While he has been healthier of late, 2024 was not his most productive year, so it acknowledged that this will be a gamble.
Bosa is only entering age 30 season, for reference, the Bills signed an ill-advised contract with Von Miller entering his age 33 season.
Or sign Josh Sweat (also only at the right price):
I think Sweat can be of great value and fit for the Bills but I am lower than the wider consensus on him so am therefore worried about an overpay.
He will be better pass rusher than any other DE in the Josh Allen era apart from pre-injury Miller, but he also won’t be a high-tier true game wrecker all by himself against offenses. I also think that he cannot replicate the same production he had in Philly without the star studded support around him.
Willing to go for similar AAV as Bosa, but for a longer practical contract. Automatically out if he goes for anything north of $18m/y (which I can see happening).
(Alternate scenario) FA DEs:
Khalil Mack: Age will be a concern here, would only do a 1 year deal (up to $25m). Is clearly the best FA available but may just has very little left in the tank.
Malcolm Koonce: The main gamble option. Great breakout 2023, didn’t play in 2024 at all. Best for a 1-2 year deal in practical terms at the $13-17m/y range.
Azeez Ojulari: Another gamble option, has flashed great upside but been littered with injuries. The player side will likely want a short prove-it deal, so willing to go with a $5-8m deal laden with incentives.
K’lavon Chaisson: Was never great and deemed a bust but had a slight 2024 breakout in the pass game. Spotrac’s projected 2 year $3.4m/y contract seems like a great bargain but I can’t see him going that low.
Baron Browning: Very similar option to Ojulari, and would like to project a similar contract as such. Flashed well in the pass game but has struggled staying healthy.
(Alt scenario) Trade for Trey Hendrickson:
Based on preference alone, this is my clear first choice with Crosby off the table. But based on likelihood, I simply cannot have this as a base case scenario.
It would be asinine from the Bengals side to trade Hendrickson to the Bills, seeing as they are a fellow AFC contending team not in a rebuild. The Bills would need to substantially outbid an NFC team for him.
But stranger things have happened, and how much does Mike Brown really care about the Bengals winning it all?
Should in theory be cheap as a one-year rental, I think an NFC team can get him for just a second-rounder plus chance but can we even get him with our first-rounder plus change (plus Epenesa)?
Sign a run-down 1-tech DT
Primary target: Sebastian Joseph-Day, wishful thinking target Poona Ford.
Spotrac has SJD projected at a 2 year $4.5m/y deal.
In my view, SJD is shaping up as a sleeper FA (with a specific impact to fill specific needs) as one of the better run-defense 1-tech in the league who just offers no pass-rush upside, and is still only entering his age 29 season.
Ford has a great breakout 2024 after spending 2023 on the Bills bench (a rare defensive coaching/evaluation blunder), potentially soured his view on Buffalo so likely will not come back if so. I value him more highly than the other two.
DJ Jones was another option before he got extended.
Sign a run-down DE
Primary targets: Calais Campbell or Clelin Ferrell, backup option is to re-sign Dawuane Smoot.
To fill in the 2024 Smoot and 2023 Lawson roles, a DE to only play running downs.
Campbell has been an ageless wonder and voiced intent to play for a contender, could be had for the cheap (I would only do a 1-year deal)
Ferrell has been a bust to his 4th overall selection but has consistently been a solid run-defender. Ideally a 3-year contract with a 1-year out, under $5m/y (in line with his past two 1-year deals)
Sign a mid-level S
Primary targets: Talanoa Hufanga or Ifeatu Melifonwu, splash alternate option Jevon Holland.
Hufanga once had an AP season (whether he deserved it is another question, but he was still a plus starter) and Melifonwu is a CB>S convert who has thrived but only in limited play.
Alternate pricier option is Miami’s Jevon Holland. Longer practical commitment is fine, would use Xavier McKinney’s $16.8m AAV as a ceiling.
(Pseudo base-case) Consider signing a starting outside CB2
2 primary targets only: DJ Reed first choice, and Charvarius Ward.
Reed has shown that he is an above average starter and will only be entering his age 28 season. Ideal contract will be in the $13-15m/y range (a payrise) and a 3-4 full years with a 2 year out.
Ward had a down year but went through off-field personal trauma, and will be entering his age 29 season. Would offer a similar AAV contract but a shorter 1 year out.
Third backup option Jaire Alexander: The packers could save either $6.9m or $17.1m (as a designated post June-1 cut) by releasing Jaire. He’ll be entering his age 28 season after an injury filled 2024 but was a top CB before that. On the player side he will be losing $15.3m in 2025 if cut so anything with that as the ceiling at similar deals to Reed and Ward would be good.
Trade for Alec Pierce:
Pierce has long been one of “my guys”, and trading for him has been on my mind ever since the Colts drafted AD Mitchell last year.
I believe Pierce is one of the most underrated WRs out there and fulfils the exact role needed for Buffalo (perimeter deep threat to feast against single-high man coverage, while being a dog run blocker). He will essentially fill the Gabe Davis role, but as a much upgraded version.
His playstyle, measurables and situation are very similar to pre-Stroud Nico Collins to me. I think he will break out to a high-level starter (but not top-tier) WR with good QB play, just like Nico did. They both don’t have the best footwork but win with their speed and size, can defeat press easily, have great ball skills and have a good zone awareness.
Put up great film in 2024 against Stingley and Gardner without the box score stats, and tore up the Bills too (albeit was most on Douglas’s side)
This can potentially be the ultimate “buy low” opportunity for the Bills, using the Dotson trade as a slight benchmark last year (Pierce will likely cost even less as he is only a 1 year rental), I’d hope we can get him for a fourth only, even a fifth. I’d even entertain a straight up trade for Keon.
He will not command an immediate contract extension so we can wait and see during the season.
This trade can also be done post-draft, with 2026 capital.
I also considered an alternate scenario of trading for DK Metcalf. While Seattle’s initial asking price of a first and third-rounder was far too step, I think a second-rounder in the end was fair. However the contract extension was too steep. I think a Pierce trade can and will be better value and impact.
Sign a depth outside CB
There are many options here, to fill a role likely to be displaced. A high-floor veteran is key, regardless of what the ceiling may be.
On the older side, there is a good market of vets to choose from in Gilmore, Slay and Griffin. All of which I’d only be willing to give a lower-end 1 year deal.
One mid-floor higher-ceiling younger gamble can be Eric Stokes. Entering his age 26 season, Stokes has a great physical profile but has been disappointing ever since a great rookie year. Perhaps the player would want a 1 year prove-it deal but if possible locking him up to a 3 year contract at a lower AAV ($5-10m range) with an early out would be a great signing.
(If Cook gets traded) Sign a cheap vet RB:
Because of the general strength of the room (Davis & Johnson) and the OL, I am not interested in the opportunity cost of a like for like investment to replace Cook.
There are plenty of candidates, but the main one I had in mind was Nick Chubb (and Aaron Jones before he got extended).
Chubb is coming off a big 2023 injury and an expedited return in 2024 his play wasn’t his usual elite self. While the likelihood of a return to AP calibre is not to be relied on, I do think his 2025 outlook will be much better than 2024. Ideally a 1 year $2-4m contract.
Sign Adam Botkin as a camp kicker:
A low risk non-guaranteed, high reward option, purely as a chance to compete at camp.
Botkin is an ex-Montana kicker who has a massive leg but is also one of the biggest and more athletic kickers around (latter can aid with kickoff return coverage and perhaps trick plays)
He is now a social media influencer but only because that is how he is trying to showcase his skills, his goal has always been to become an NFL kicker.
Kickers like Aubrey are showing that pedigree and background are far less important than the actual ability to kick.
One extra skill he can provide is his ability to kick one-step FGs. The ST coaching staff can possibly incorporate 1-step FGs and PATs as the default within a certain distance, given how there were quite a few key blocked FGs throughout the league in 2024.
(Low capital) Trade for Andrew Booth jr.:
For two mocks in a row, I have been asking for a low-risk potentially high reward trade for Booth to convert him into safety. I was iffy on him as a corner coming out of Clemson but always thought he had the skillset of a Hyde/Poyer.
I think Dallas can part with him for late 2026 capital, and we would be taking on only a $1.1m base salary cap hit.
(Low capital) Trade for Trevor Penning:
Also a 2024 proposal that I have rolled forward, I believe Penning can be a great project for Kromer to work on (like he already did with college teammate Brown) but the sooner he gets his hands on him the better, otherwise he just becomes a late 20s project.
His superb athletic profile can also make him a great 6th OL option in jumbo formations.
His 2025 base salary will be $2.6m, and I don’t see the Saints wanting a lot in return.
5.) Draft!
Below is a table of all my main draft targets from the first round all the way through. Will discuss specific prospects I like but also ones to avoid below. Again a departure to 2024 where I only had 1.5 options I was happy with for our first selection.
Pending the moves above, heading into draft night, CB2 and WR will be the biggest needs, followed by DE. While securing run-down DTs will also be a relatively strong need.
Day 1 thoughts (if 30th pick still in possession)
Kenneth Grant concerns:
Amongst positions that of need for Buffalo, I probably have the most anti-consensus view on Grant, having him much lower graded (second/third rounder) than the lofty first round consensus view for a 1-tech.
To be clear, I still view the position as a need, hence addressing it in FA but will also intend on doing so in day 3 at much better value in my view.
Essentially, my issue with Grant is that he plays below his size both in a good and bad way.
Starting with the positives: He genuinely possess rare and special movement skills for his size. I don’t think there are many or any 340lbs + DTs who can drop back in coverage, chase down backside pursuits or move across 3 gaps when stunting like he can. However, this is not what makes a good 1-tech DT and is just the icing on the cake.
As to the cake itself, that is where I have issue on the consensus view on Grant. While he has good lateral agility to help penetrate, he gets swallowed and moved with ease in the run game, does not stack and shed well and his bull rush gets neutralised one on one pretty easily.
Some of these issues are certainly coachable, like learning to adopt a corkscrew technique and generally play with a much lower pad-level, but one should expect a first rounder at a lower value position like 1-tech DT to come in ready.
For reference, I was a big T’Vondre Sweat guy last year and I would Sweat much higher than Grant at their day jobs.
My evaluation process involves hours or tens of hours of tape review per prospect, and while I don’t expect a reader to go through the same I implore you to try this exercise:
Grant and Mason Graham share a lot of plays due to both having higher snap rates. So just put on any Mason Graham highlight reel, ignore Graham and watch how big 74 fares. This will be a as close to a completely random sample of Grant’s plays. He will likely be getting pushed off for most run plays and make minimal impact on pass plays.
Jahdae Barron:
I am slightly higher than consensus on Barron, having a mid-first grade when the current consensus ranking implies a low-1st.
Elite ball skills, zone instincts, run fits and tackling. Limitations come from UT’s zone heavy scheme which did not utilise Barron or their CBs in any man coverage looks. The 4.39 40 helps alleviate some concerns but the short sub 30” arms do not. Good for him that his draft stock is doing well, but his evaluation would have been much clearer had he went to the Senior Bowl and participated in 1 on 1 drills.
By all accounts, a good character, leader and locker room presence.
Depending on what the defensive philosophy is moving forward, is a “pick your flavour” two-way choice with the next CB I discuss.
Trade down for Azareye'h Thomas:
Also higher than consensus on Thomas, even more so with my mid-first grade versus the consensus second round grade.
Best man coverage corner studied (did not get a chance to watch consensus Big 2). His game reminds me a lot of Benford, very patient at the LOS, good hand usage without being grabby, has good physicality, smooth hips for a larger CB and can stick to WRs hip to hip despite not being a burner.
Against the run, he is a good but not spectacular tackler but he has a very peculiar weakness: He gets locked up by WRs run blocking him and that issue pops up far more on film than any tackling concerns. Bizarre considering that his physicality when jamming is superb.
Zone awareness is subpar but not a full on liability. He does the basics well but is specifically very slow to move onto secondary assignments when having passed off a receiver (peeling into the flats in cover 2 for example). Being one of the youngest prospects of the class, this can be worked on.
So if the Bills want to stick with the incumbent “bend don’t break” off-coverage heavy scheme, then Barron would be the better option. But given the hires of Nielsen and Pellegrino, perhaps that signals a shift to more press and more man, which would be great for Thomas.
Corners to avoid:
I am lower than consensus for both Benjamin Morrison and Shavon Revel, especially for a Bills specific context for Revel.
Morrison reminds me of Elam (the Florida prospect, not the eventual bust) quite a bit: Mainly a man corner who is quite lost in zone, is a liability as a tackler and run defender. I think his physicality in coverage is also below that of Elam’s.
Revel is purely a floor issue for me, I can see him being one of the best CBs in this class but not until year 3 and the bills need a CB2 NOW. Great raw skills but littered with coachable issues: Zero patience at the LOS as he flips his hips early, hand usage at LOS is just punch and hope it does something, susceptible to double moves, does not know when and how to locate the ball. But he is a strong tackler with great hips and elite recovery speed. Basically a rookie Tariq Woolen (but a much better tackling), will be a liability in man coverage out of the gate so best to keep everything in front of him to react on.
(Only if DE and CB2 are handled pre-draft) Matthew Golden:
One of my considerably higher than consensus grades, he is my WR1 with a mid-first, and the only first round WR I’d consider drafting in any scenario.
His overall profile is best described as no calling-card strengths, but absolutely no weakness. Every aspect of the receiving can be described as “good but not elite”: ball skills, route running, athleticism and YAC.
Comps are never perfect, but he is a bigger Devonta Smith to me.
While I like his on-field speed on film, I don’t think he is as fast as his 4.29 40 implies, he is to me a high 4.3s/low 4.4s player.
Trade down for Donovan Ezeiruaku:
I am higher than consensus, with a firm mid-first grade as he is a projected second rounder.
High impact pass rusher: Use elite get-off, bend & speed to threaten the outside and pairs that well with any (non-spin) inside counters. Despite perceived smaller size (mostly in line with Carter/Pearce/Green), he is also a force in the run game where he utilises his length even better.
An extra bonus for the Bills is that his favoured side is the defensive right which will prevent any cannibalising of reps on the defensive left which Rousseau’s snaps have dealt with in the past (with Miller mainly)
Most notably he does not possess some potential character concerns like 2 other DEs I like on film (discussed later) that I have no idea how to approach as an outsider.
(Alt scenario) Trade down for Jack Sawyer:
As much as I like Sawyer, I do not like him as much as the other DEs of interest here so this is more of a contingency plan
On film I feel like he is a lot more athletic than given credit for, threatens the outside very well especially with good hand usage. But he is best as a power rusher despite his considerable lack of length.
Absolute bully in the run game, play strength is at a high level.
Lack of bend is the main issue in my view, if the OT can get to his landmark then any outside speed move rep is lost for him.
Length (31 ¾) may be a concern too, there are short armed top pass rushers in the league in Parsons (31 ½), Hutchinson (32 1/8) and Hendrickson (32) who win in other ways. Sawyer does so with his play strength, burst and good hand usage
(Alt scenario) 3-techs:
There are 3-tech DTs I like at just outside this range, but they still aren’t as big as a need as DE/CB/WR and I also have a day 3 sleeper option I really like. However, these prospects still deserve consideration and a mention.
Derrick Harmon: Elite measurables, plays tough but is a project. Awesome anchor in the run game, great bull rush but doesn’t have a moveset outside of that. Also weirdly is not a very good converter (pressures to sacks, blowing up gaps to TFLs etc)
Tyleik Williams: Very unusual background as he has all the skillset and measurables of a 1-tech but OSU plays him at 3-tech predominantly (Hamilton is the main 1-tech despite being smaller). He OSU position would be something interesting to discuss in an interview. Violent hands, clogs gaps in the run game very well. Can be a very good running down 3-tech but can also just play in both DT spots. (honestly like him ahead of Grant as a 1-tech)
Walter Nolen: Great lateral agility, violent hands, has a good bucket of moves. Being on smaller side, can on occasion get washed out pretty easily. Too similar to Ed Oliver for the Bills to draft, but can make another team happy in the late first.
See below for 3-techs to potentially target in the second round, plus a day 3 sleeper.
(Alt scenario) Mike Green & James Pearce jr:
As a completely outsider, this mock is entirely based on film study with athletic testing measurables sprinkled in. Based on that entirely, I am strongly inclined to draft either one of these guys but there are just some non-football concerns I have no idea how to make the best decision out of.
Just briefly touching on the football side of things: Green is the top DE I have watched (haven’t watched Carter), his speed, strength and bend are all prototypical for a star DE and is also a superb run defender. Green’s arms are short but honestly the film is so good that I am not concerned. Pearce has an elite get-off by NFL standards, paired with good bend which makes him a naturally great speed rusher but he also wins with inside counters and speed-to-powers for oversetting tackles. Adequate run defender.
Green has two separate SA allegations, one at HS and one at his first university (Virginia). He could have done them, or he could be falsely accused. I am not going to sit here pretending I know what the deal is.
Pearce’s alleged character concerns are at least purely on-field. Reports are that he was a pain for Tennessee’s coaches and his lower snap share was to do with that. The Bills have a good group of veteran leadership and culture so maybe not an issue perhaps.
Day 2 & 3:
WRs:
Assuming Golden was not drafted with Buffalo’s selection, the intention is to end up with TWO WRs from rounds 2-4, prioritising verticality, separation and the ability to play against press on the outside for at least one of these WRs.
An anti-consensus view, but I actually think this is a very deep WR class with a buffet of good day 2 options (much better than 2024). I align with consensus in thinking it is very thin at the top.
There are many multiple good paths to go down, but I will just focus on my most desired scenario, and perhaps some “buyer beware” WRs to discuss. Any projected day 2 WR not mentioned, just assume that I would also be happy to draft but not as a first choice.
Main target Savion Williams:
I probably hold one of the more anti-consensus views on Savion. I have a higher grade on him, think his floor is not that low and just do not understand what many have flagged as weaknesses.
I see a lot of comps of the “athlete over WR” types like Cordarelle Paterson/Kevin White but I do not understand that.
While it is true that TCU’s usage of him was very gimmicky, purely as a WR he is still a great prospect.
He has elite game speed (looks like a high 4.3s player on film over his 4.49 40), is a great contested catcher, his cuts are very clean and sharp especially for his size and his zone awareness is underratedly great (makes sense as a former QB).
His ability to outright defeat press-jams and any physical coverage with his hands and strengths reminds me of AJ Brown now or TO back in the day, he can play X-WR against physical press corners.
His route running nuance is there but not fully: he knows how to attack the outside for in breakers (textbook perfect reps for TDs against OK State and UCF where the CB had his hips flipped to the sideline as Savion was wide open inside) but he doesn’t threaten the inside at all to give himself space on fades.
There are many that say he cannot separate and is another N’Keal Harry/Hakeem Butler but this I do not understand at all. I do not have access to raw separation data, but using his uncontested target % as the next best thing, here is him compared to other bigger-bodied projected day 2 WRs (behind LOS passes excluded):
His main issue is his drop rate, but this to me is a case of concentration drops rather any anything to do with ball skills as he can show that he can make some really tough catches outside of his frame and/or in traffic. The ability to make good catches naturally on film (as opposed to making catching a football look so laboured and challenging like Quentin Johnston and Troy Franklin have done) than an actual drop rate figure
His drops also come in streaks, which goes more to support this point (first drop will get in his head and the mental impact snowballs).
The concentration drops can be worked on, Terry Mclaurin who had a 11% drop rate at OSU who now has one of the best hands in the NFL is an example of this.
Ideal WR pairing 1 Tez Johnson:
Tez first popped to me when I was studying his teammate Troy Franklin last year.
I know his 40 was stupidly slow and he will likely be the lightest WR in the league, but I don’t really care. Tez will never be a top-end WR1 due to his size but I think he can be an elite complementary piece due to his skillset.
Firstly his game speed absolutely does not match the 4.51 (he looks like a low 4.3s player to my eye), and he also absurdly ran the fastest GPS-tracked top speed for the position drills in the combine, at a blistering 22.17 mph on a go route.
Terrific hands, both on film but also in his 3.5% drop rate.
Effort in the run game is ridiculous given his size, but I don’t think this will translate to the NFL. More of a point to his on-field motor.
Despite his small size, his route running is elite and his game speed just makes him very difficult to cover. Can play Y and Z in the NFL, would be enhanced by a creative OC putting him in bunches and motion.
Ideal WR pairing 2 Jaylin Noel:
Has good game speed, solid hands and is a decent route runner but a tad undersized (not too much of a concern). Ultimately think he can play all 3 WR position but is best suited to Z, and can threaten defenses vertically.
Has very sharp in and out breaking cuts but his stop routes show a different story, needing to take more extra steps.
With Josh being who he is, this needs to be worked on (and can be): scramble drill awareness and effort just isn’t there.
Avoid Isaiah Bond:
When I was first starting the process for this mock, consensus was still projecting Bond as a first-rounder while I saw him much much lower than that, so I have been a vindicated since.
I still think he is being overvalued currently as a high third-rounder as I have him more in the low-third to high-fourth range, and certainly behind most of the currently consensus projected day 2 WRs.
His 4.39 40 surprised me as I thought his game speed was definitely much faster than that, and that was the only strength I saw.
His cuts are neither sharp nor smooth, his zone awareness is flat out illiterate and his YAC ability for his speed is just not great. I was down on Franklin last year (correctly so) and I see Bond as Franklin with better ball skills but worse in zone.
Buyer beware on Tre Harris:
A bit of a nuanced overall view: I think he is worth a day 2 pick, but he is currently consensus WR5 ahead of Higgins/Bech/Noel/Royals/Williams as a mid-secound rounder which I think is too high.
Plus ball skills to make tough catches downfield, ability to defeat physical coverage with his strength is there, allowing him to play X.
His 4.51 40 matches him game speed to my eye, which is my main concern. Secondary concern is that his route tree was very limited but I think he has the (adequate but not exceptional) movement ability to potentially expand his tree for sure.
Good players but not good fits:
Jack Bech: Has everything I’m looking for apart from the field-stretching speed. Strong outside WR fundamentals: good size, good play-strength, great hands and is a good route runner despite his frame. Will be a great possession receiver capable of playing all 3 positions.
Xavier Restrepo: Reliable hands when ball is in his smaller radius, nuanced and clean route runner when given free releases. However, has little game speed and cannot deal with physical coverage so is pigeonholed to a possession slot WR.
3-tech DTs:
Darius Alexander:
Was once a sleeper for me, but has since soared up consensus boards. While vindicating, it is frustrating. Had him as a third-rounder pre senior-bowl when he was projected as a fifth-rounder, his dominance in the senior-bowl drills put him as a consensus second-rounder, which I am aligned with.
Will be a very good run-down 3-tech with even more upside in the pass game too.
If Jerry Jones does make a dumb second-round trade for James Cook, then this would be a prime opportunity to grab Alexander as a quasi-luxury selection there.
Alfred Collins:
Big, long and powerful DT for early running-downs.
Like Tyleik Williams, possesses a 1-tech frame but played a lot more 3-tech, has the flexibility to potentially play both in the NFL.
Great stack and shed ability, strong anchor and length makes him very hard to displace in the run game. Pass rush isn’t really there beyond an above average bull rush and some good pursuit/cleanup pressures.
CJ West:
The early-down 3-tech sleeper that I hope we target. Viewed him similarly to Alexander early on in the mock process, but Alexander has soared up the consensus rankings while West has only climbed slightly.
Powerful hands, bigger size and strong leg drive make him a plus run defender.
Very good first-step and lateral agility for his size also indicates upside as a pass-rusher.
Played for a small school but not against small competition (held his own against OSU, ND and Michigan)
Has the flame to flex inside too if needed.
Main downside being his finishing ability, will create the pressure or blow up the run blocking but miss the sack or tackle.
Perhaps to target with trading up from our 131st fourth round selection.
1-tech DTs:
Jamaree Caldwell:
Another high priority day-3 target, I have him as a high-third, borderline-second rounder and while he has been climbing on the consensus board, he is still a high fourth rounder.
Prototypical nose-tackle size, a devastating gap eater and basically impossible to move in the run game. Basically lives in the backfield when he is tasked to one-gap against the run.
Has a good range of moves already and has a quick first step especially for his size so there is also great pass rushing upside as a true 1-tech/nose-tackle. Just needs to work on finishing (4% pressure to sack conversion rate in 2024).
I am afraid to go so far against consensus, but I think I would take him over Kenneth Grant if both are available.
Will be the main target for the 108th pick traded from Chicago perhaps.
Nazir Stackhouse:
Currently projected as a sixth rounder but was previously a consensus UDFA. My main backup option for Caldwell at 1-tech.
Hard to move, good block shedder in the run game and I think he can be an above average early down inside DT. However his pass rushing projection is not as dire as projected (but still very little upside).
I think this is a coaching point, but would be an interesting interview subject: UGA does play him on passing downs and when he doesn’t win initially (most of the time), he drops back and tries to go for a batdown. I would personally much like him to continue pressing the pocket, making an impact by preventing the QB from stepping up while not necessarily generating a pressure.
TEs:
Mitchell Evans:
A sleeper all-round TE I am after, I think he can easily outcompete Quinton Morris as TE3 and complement both Knox and Kincaid.
A sturdy but not spectacular blocker, but given how CFB TEs are generally trending (blocking just seems to get worse and worse as a whole) this is still a plus.
Has great hands to make tough catches over the middle and runs the basic Y-TE routes (seams, flats, drags) well, making a good all round TE.
Below average movement skills for the routes Kincaid would run and for any big YAC plays.
Gunnar Helm:
While Helm and Evans are both “all-rounder” TEs, Helm swings more in the receiving side of the balance.
Has good play strength and effort in the blocking game, issues come from poor hand placement & timing which can be coached.
Is a smooth and agile TE rather than any top-end speed, can run a more expansive route tree for a TE and is more of a YAC threat. Also has elite ball skills for a TE.
Ran a very slow 40 but he participated in the combine on a sprained ankle, so I am not concerned about any of his testing numbers.
Other positions:
Trey Amos:
The backup plan for not signing Reed/Ward and not drafting Thomas/Barron early, myself and consensus both see him as a second rounder.
In my view, a low ceiling mid-floor player. His film was so boring to watch as he never screwed up but also rarely did anything great.
Does the fundamentals well and plays with good technique but does not flash anything exceptional. Hip-flipping ability is okay but not the best for a CB, which is the only thing I see as a weakness, I would describe every other trait as “adequate”.
This is an NFL starting outside CB but will never make a pro-bowl, like a more athletic Levi Wallace.
Nofoafia Tulafono:
As a big T’Vondre Sweat guy in 2024, Tulafono popped to me as someone who held his own against Sweat very well in 2024, he anchored against Sweat’s bull rush 1 on 1 very well and managed to be able to move him off the ball in the run game consistently, which is a very rare feat.
Given that he is ranked in the 400s in the consensus big board, I think he can for sure be a late-round lottery ticket as I am a lot higher on him.
Punter?
· With Martin released, a punter would be ideal to bring in to compete against Jake Camarda.
· For full transparency, I don’t really know how to scout specialists at all beyond looking at stats. I have always looked to what ST youtuber Isaac Punts thinks for this domain. He has been building a great track record (Stonehouse P1, Rehkow P1 both seem to be correct after being not the consensus takes). So hopefully we draft whomever he rates highly late in day 3.
1.) Roster breakdown
QB
Not much needs to be said. Josh is Josh, Mike White is a proven backup QB who has “decent” starting experience at a good price. A third PS QB who will be a good QB room presence can be found easily.
RB
If Cook is traded, then the room will have one extra addition, likely Chubb. Otherwise, I expect Ray Davis to have an extended role and Ty Johnson to keep being the third-down ace. Gilliam remains at fullback but I hope he can get more usage cause otherwise his roster spot is a bit wasteful.
WR
With Peirce hopefully traded for, he can be our main outside field stretching weapon (X or Z, but more X). He can either be paired with Savion/Golden or some other rookie outside WR. Shakir will continue feasting as our YAC/gadget player in the slot but hopefully more flex/backfield looks. Tez/Noel will be great depth Y/Z WRs who can get the Bills more of their much-needed separation. Hollins will be the starting gunner while taking more of a backseat as a WR, but still remains a big locker room guy. Keon COULD be traded and if so his role should be replaced by Claypool on a minimum contract like he was signed to last year before he was hurt for the season.
TE
Inline TE starter is Knox, the flex receiving TE starter is Kincaid, no change. Hope Kincaid can bounce back after playing poorly due to playing through injuries in 2024. Evans/Helm will be in a camp competition with Morris, which I expect the rookie to win and secure the TE3 spot.
OL
Running back with the starting 5, although would have been a nice semi-luxury to upgrade from Edwards at LG. Depth roster is more interesting. Vandy and Anderson are cemented backup RT/G respectively. If Penning gets traded for cheap, I expect a camp battle where he can maybe beat out Grable (who I hope to keep on the PS). Another battle between SVPG and Tulafono which I hope for Tulafono to win, and the “loser” will be our other backup G. A less likely but more realistic scenario would be either SVPG or Tulafono earning the starting job, which can push McGovern to LG.
DE
Again, bummed to lose out on Crosby. So while this room will lack a true HOF game-wrecker I once projected, it will still be considerably upgraded. Early run-downs will be a combo of Ferrell/Campbell alongside Rousseau and Bosa/Sweat being rotated. Ambiguous and passing downs will be a mix of Rousseau, whoever the rookie is and Bosa/Sweat. Solomon will directly compete with Chaisson for the final depth slot if Chaisson is signed, with Chaisson in pole position, hopefully Solomon can also make it to the PS. I expect Epenesa to be cut or traded later in camp hopefully for a decent return and a $2.9m 2025 and $6.2m 2026 cap savings.
DT
Earl run-down pairing of West (or a higher drafted rookie) at 3-tech and a rotation between Joseph-Day and Caldwell at 1-tech. For passing downs, Oliver should play the lion’s share of 3-tech snaps with 1-tech snaps shared by Daquan Jones and Caldwell. Unfortunately Dewayne Carter will be cut unless he massively improves in camp but hopefully can land on our PS. A wildcard option is to trade Daquan later in camp, if our 1-techs look good and Carter all look good.
LB
Very straightforward, zero turnover and running back with the same guys last year.
CB
Benford and Johnson locked in as starters, with the third spot going to either a big FA signing or Thomas/Barron. A vet FA to serve as a genuinely backup outside CB, with Cam Lewis backing up Johnson at nickel while playing STs. Ingram will be the final late-depth backup and also a STs contributor.
S
Rapp remains one of the starters. The second spot will likely be our FA signing, but Bishop has a chance (but not a strong likelihood) of earning it. The final spot can go to CB-bust convert Andrew Booth jr.
ST
Reid Ferguson locked in at LS. Camp battles for both P and K, between Camarda vs a Rookie and Bass vs Botkin. The K battle should be as open as it can be, but if Bass is cut in or just before camp, it saves $3.7m in 2025 cap space.